The new energy vehicle market will continue to be booming in 2022, with sales of 6.887 million new energy vehicles and a market penetration rate of 27.6%, reaching a historic high. It is expected that this data will continue to climb to 36% in 2023. Do you have any plans to purchase new energy vehicles in recent years?
Based on the new energy vehicle models that I have test driven in recent years and have a deep understanding of, I would like to share my views on the technologies and functions that may become leading or mainstream in 2023 and beyond. I hope this can help you who are preparing to choose a car or are interested in new energy vehicles. Is having a camera sufficient for autonomous driving?
Many people refer to 2022 as the first year of urban navigation and driving assistance, because a series of mass-produced models equipped with high computing power chips, LiDAR, and high-precision maps have been officially delivered, and some urban road driving assistance functions have been opened. However, in the future, these seemingly lofty terms may not need to be sufficient conditions for choosing a car. Since the second half of last year, two new voices have emerged in the field of high-level driving assistance. The first is “heavy perception, light map”. The high precision map that was previously pursued by many car companies has slightly declined, and more and more manufacturers, especially autonomous driving solution companies, have begun to propose solutions that “heavy perception, light map”. The specific change is in urban road sections that rely more on high-precision maps, Starting to replace high-precision maps with ordinary navigation maps, accelerating the coverage of urban navigation driving assistance functions, improving map freshness, and reducing costs. The missing information compared to high-precision maps can be supplemented through the collection of in vehicle perception sensors. When it comes to perception sensors, there is a second type of sound, which only uses cameras to achieve fully autonomous driving function. At Tesla’s AI Day last year, they demonstrated the latest occupancy network technology. Compared to the widely used BEV, the main improvement is in detecting the movement/stillness of objects that cannot be judged, detecting occluded objects, and predicting more accurate passage space, Coincidentally, these optimizations are also basically the most important functional supplements for visual sensors in current LiDAR. Moreover, for the visual system, its advantage is that it becomes more accurate from far to near, and can even surpass the level of LiDAR at a distance. Coincidentally, in the demonstration video of NIO Day’s NIO ET7 high-speed autonomous battery swapping last year, and in the introduction of the latest parking solutions for Ideal L9 and L8, we also saw demonstrations about the use of network technology. Therefore, before achieving true fully autonomous driving, is it necessary for us and car companies to pay additional and higher costs for LiDAR?
Average energy consumption is more noteworthy than maximum range
After being promoted as the biggest pain point for electric vehicle owners, range anxiety seems to have become the sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of some car companies. After NIO released a 150kWh semi-solid state battery that is only for rent but not for sale, high-capacity batteries have become a battleground for some manufacturers. The Lantu Chasing Light is equipped with a 108.73kWh battery CLTC with a range of 730km, the Avita 11 is equipped with a 116.79kWh battery CLTC with a range of 680km, and the Jike 001 is equipped with a 140kWh battery CLTC with a range of 1032km, Can building a larger electric vehicle for consumers only rely on stacking, as large capacity batteries bring relatively longer range and also mean heavier quality, higher energy consumption, and higher costs?
The answer is naturally negative. Let’s take a look at a few clearly effective technologies. Firstly, the already impressive 800V platform based on SiC brings faster charging speed and motor response, while reducing losses by increasing voltage and achieving lower energy consumption. Secondly, there is better energy management. Taking the efficiency of kinetic energy recovery as an example, thanks to the advancement of battery and electric drive systems, the BMW i4 can achieve a kinetic energy recovery efficiency of 195kW, while the Mercedes EQE can achieve a maximum recovery power of 290kW. As a reference, the latest fast charging station of the State Grid of China has a power of 120kW. The higher efficiency of kinetic energy recovery ensures that more energy can be converted and stored every time the brake is applied. Next is wind resistance, which is the maximum resistance that a vehicle needs to overcome when driving at high speeds. It is also the main reason for the greatly reduced range of electric vehicles at high speeds. To reduce this impact, it is essential to put effort into exterior design. For example, the exterior design of the NIO ET7 roof LiDAR is blown out in a wind tunnel while meeting functional requirements, Similarly, many car models still use hidden door handles, low drag wheels, and active pneumatic kits. The Mercedes EQXX is currently the most extreme in this regard, with a wind resistance of only 0.17cd. The lowest wind resistance in mass-produced models is the Mercedes EQS 0.2Cd, followed by the NIO ET7 0.208Cd. As a reference, the falling water droplet has the smallest wind resistance coefficient of about 0.05Cd, while the wind resistance of a flying bird is 0.1-0.2Cd. Generally, the wind resistance of a vehicle model is around 0.35Cd, and the wind resistance of a sphere is 0.5Cd. Perhaps you might ask, “What should I do if I just want to use a pure electric vehicle to run long distances without charging?”?
”So, when it comes to the Mercedes EQXX, equipped with a 100kWh battery, it departed from Stuttgart, Germany in 2022 to the Silverstone circuit in the UK, covering a distance of 1202km with an average power consumption of 8.3kWh/100km. As much as 95% of the electricity was transmitted to the wheels, this was not a CLTC condition, but was completely completed on open roads. After arriving at the Silverstone circuit, there was still remaining electricity, and they even drove a few laps on it until the electricity ran out. Of course, if you feel that the technology represented by Mercedes Benz EQXX is a bit distant from you, why not take a look at the next trend. Does the large cylindrical battery become the “ultimate battery”?
According to the packaging form, the power batteries of automobiles are mainly divided into cylindrical batteries, square batteries, and soft pack batteries. The 18650, 21700, and 4680 batteries used by Tesla belong to cylindrical batteries, and the 4680 battery was produced on Battery Day in 2020; On the press conference, it was announced that due to its larger diameter, it is known as a large cylindrical battery. It was stated that it can increase battery energy by 5 times, power by 6 times, and reduce costs by 14%. After repeatedly skipping tickets, Sandy Monroe finally dismantled the 4680 battery installed on the overseas mass-produced Model Y last year. After testing, it was found that the 4680 battery did not differ from 21700 in actual energy density and total capacity, and even slightly lagged behind in energy density. For such a seemingly outdated new battery, it still receives a lot of praise, and LG and Panasonic have stated that their own 4680 battery will start mass production in 2023 and 2024, which is not solely due to the influence of Tesla or Musk. The cost is currently the biggest advantage of the 4680 battery. When its performance is close to that of the 21700, lower costs are highly attractive to any car company. For electric vehicles today, the cost of power batteries accounts for at least 30% of the total vehicle cost, and the smaller the model, the higher the proportion. In addition, Musk mentioned at last year’s financial report meeting that the cost of Tesla’s new model will only be half of that of the Model 3. Speaking of the performance of the 4680 battery itself, future improvements in electrochemistry, including positive electrode materials, may provide significant room for improvement in the 4680 battery, as its larger battery capacity, larger stress diffusion area, and full pole ear design all contribute to better achieving ultrafast charging and high current discharge. Similarly to Tesla, BMW Group also saw this point. They announced last year that they would be the first to use large cylindrical batteries in “new generation” models starting from 2025. They have signed battery production demand contracts worth over 10 billion euros with two partners, CATL and EVE Lithium Energy. BMW’s large cylindrical batteries have a diameter of 46 millimeters and a height of 95 or 120 millimeters. It can be said that the large cylindrical battery represented by Tesla 4680 meets the cost considerations of car companies very well at present, and it has great technological development space in the future. Will electric vehicles become secondary products?
At the beginning of 2022, a news report about Tesla Model Y reversing and crashing into a wall resulted in a loss of 200000 yuan. The owner exclaimed that it was better to scrap it directly. Do you still remember that the reason for such high maintenance costs is that Tesla Model Y’s rear bottom plate adopts integrated die-casting technology, which transforms more than 70 original parts into one part. The biggest advantage of this technology is that it can improve production efficiency, reduce manufacturing costs, and also increase the rigidity of the vehicle body The effect of reducing vehicle weight. Of course, Tesla’s expectations for integrated die-casting are not limited to this. They also plan to manufacture the entire chassis of integrated die-casting in the future, further reducing costs and increasing efficiency. For Tesla’s approach, you and I may all have the same reaction, after all, it can be considered a certain degree of cost transfer. However, whether you accept it or not, this manufacturing method may become an irreversible trend. Tesla is not alone in this race. The EQXX, which is equipped with many of Mercedes Benz’s most advanced technologies, has adopted a similar structure in the rear of the body and is referred to as a “biomimetic casting”, The rear floors of NIO ET5 and ET7 are cast together, and Volkswagen, Volvo, and Xiaopeng have all announced that they will use this technology on their own models. At the end of 2023, the national subsidy for new energy vehicles came to an end. Unlike many people’s expectations, new energy models did not see a comprehensive price increase. After Tesla announced the price reduction, Wenjie and Xiaopeng also joined the price reduction team, providing considerable discounts. As I mentioned in the above four points, the cost reduction is more or less. I believe that with the advancement of technology and craftsmanship, in the future, we can use lower prices to buy and have a better user experience Smarter products.
2023 will be the explosive year of the new energy vehicle market, and the technology of new energy vehicles is currently relatively mature.
